Video
Key points
Current Economic Context vs. Past Crises
- Comparison with Past: Less severe than 2008 or dot-com bubble, with less leveraged banking system.
- Current Challenges: Significant issues like complex geopolitics and persistent inflation expected to continue.
Trade and Tariffs
- Implications of Tariffs: Discusses broader impact of recent tariffs on global trade negotiations.
- Advocacy for Fair Trade: Emphasizes the need for comprehensive solutions including addressing non-tariff barriers.
Economic Security and National Security
- Interconnection: Links economic security directly to national security, advocating for stronger global alliances.
- Supply Chain Security: Stresses importance of reducing dependency on geopolitical rivals for essential goods.
Recession Outlook and Economic Predictions
- Recession Likelihood: Economic pressures from tariffs and volatility likely to lead to recession.
- Corporate Response: Predicts corporate spending cuts and increase in defaults, calls for strategic economic management.
Impact of China on Global Economy and Trade
- Trade Tensions: Highlights escalated tensions with China due to tariffs, affecting global stability.
- China’s Economic Strategies: Discusses China’s responses to U.S. policies and their global implications.
- Reducing Dependency: Advocates for diversifying supply chains and increasing domestic production to reduce reliance on China.
感受
这几天最让我绝望的不是trump，而是Jamie dimon 的表态。 我知道有生之年我迟早需要在东西两个大国之间选择一个，永远告别另一个。
已经花了很多年考虑移民瑞士和日本的问题。 只是没想到来得这么快，我还以为我还有7-10年的时间。
这两天之内连续发生了三件令我沮丧的事情:
- 知道了姐夫的事情
- Trump的tariff.
- 还有今天 Jamie dimon的表态.
我不知道这三件事哪一件最令我绝望, 大概就是Jamine 这件事了. 我一直敬仰Jamine. 但从这个视频的谈话完全是在战争状态下的经济讨论.
我看到时代的铁幕已经落下. 一切不可逆转.
1949年最好的选择不是美国, 不是台湾, 也不是中国. 而是瑞士. 去一个安静的地方躲避纷扰.
我把人生最好的时光都贡献给了这个国家. 如今我感受到的是被国家背叛. 这比在爱情中被人背叛还要难受.